Perspectives On Uncertainty And Risk

Author: Marjolein Van Asselt
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401725837
Size: 59.23 MB
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This volume is intended to stimulate a change in the practice of decision support, advocating an interdisciplinary approach centred on both social and natural sciences, both theory and practice. It addresses the issue of analysis and management of uncertainty and risk in decision support corresponding to the aims of Integrated Assessment. A pluralistic method is necessary to account for legitimate plural interpretations of uncertainty and multiple risk perceptions. A wide range of methods and tools is presented to contribute to adequate and effective pluralistic uncertainty management and risk analysis in decision support endeavours. Special attention is given to the development of one such approach, the Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA), of which the practical value is explored in the context of the Environmental Outlooks produced by the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM). Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners whose work involves decision support, uncertainty management, risk analysis, environmental planning, and Integrated Assessment.

Working In High Risk Environments

Author: Douglas Paton
Publisher: Charles C Thomas Publisher
ISBN: 039808694X
Size: 52.49 MB
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The impact of events such as the 9/11 terrorist attacks and Hurricane Katrina were felt across the spectrum of organizations. Such events provide vivid illustrations of the exceptional circumstances that emergency and protective service agencies and businesses alike can encounter. The goal of this book is to broaden the perspectives on the populations that need to be included when thinking about high risk groups and from whom insights into resilience and how it is enacted can be sought. The first chapter discusses high risk environments, sustained resilience and stress risk management. Chapter 2 explores family first responders and resilient mothers of special needs children, including case examples. Chapter 3 examines the resilience of Antarctic expeditioners, relationship dynamics, social support, and organizational climate. Information sharing, trust, empowerment and staying cool under pressure is also discussed. Chapter 4 covers business resilience, preventing loss versus facilitating survival, and the role of continuity planning. In Chapter 5, scientific advice for critical decision making, natural hazards and emergency management, uncertainty, team decision making, advice taking, and shared mental models is presented. Chapter 6 covers COP Shot, and the seeds of resiliency. Chapter 7 defines resiliency in high risk groups, and provides a qualitative analysis of law enforcement and elite military personnel. The Johns Hopkins Perspective is explored, focusing on the results and methods of structural modeling. Chapter 8 describes the psychological stress factors in modern military operations, mental hardiness, and leader influence. Chapter 9 pursues the ecological theory of resilience and adaptive capacity in emergency services. Ultimately, the book meets a need on how to respond effectively in a high risk environment, and the information contained will assist agencies and businesses to develop their capacity to adapt to unpredictable and challenging circumstances.

Knowingly Taking Risk

Author: Ellen Gehner
Publisher: Eburon Uitgeverij B.V.
ISBN: 9059722884
Size: 29.26 MB
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Implementing Sustainable Development

Author: Hussein Abaza
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN:
Size: 13.10 MB
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'A multidisciplinary compilation bringing together 12 studies from around the world. Each chapter emphasises the necessity for integrated assessment and evaluation of environmental and development strategies when designing sustainable development policies. A concise, well referenced book exploring the challenges faced in the decision making process.' - Friends of the Earth Decision-makers increasingly seek to design environmental and development policies that will support sustainable development. Thus, practical tools to help formulate sustainable development policies and clear methods to assess their acceptability and effectiveness are urgently needed. This book contributes to meeting these needs by presenting both analytical and empirical aspects of decision-making processes.

Acting Under Uncertainty

Author: George M. von Furstenberg
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401578737
Size: 79.62 MB
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Uncertainty could be associated with wisdom, enterprise, and discovery. In ordinary speech, however, it has mostly negative connotations. There is "fear of the unknown" and "ignorance is bliss;" there are maxims to the effect that "what you don't know doesn't hurt you" (or: "bother you") in several languages. This volume suggests that we need be bothered by the excessive confidence with which scientists, particularly social scientists, present some of their conclusions and overstate their range of application. Otherwise many of the questions that should be raised about all the major uncertainties attending a particular issue routinely may continue to be thwarted or suppressed. Down playing uncertainty does not lead to more responsible or surer action, it sidetracks research agendas, and leaves the decision makers exposed to nasty surprise. This volume demonstrates that recognizing the many forms of uncertainty that enter into the development of any particular subject matter is a precondition for more responsible choice and deeper knowledge. Our purpose is to contribute to a broader appreciation of uncertainty than regularly accorded in any of the numerous disciplines represented here. The seventeenth-century French philosopher Descartes, quoted in this volume, wrote that "whoever is searching after truth must, once in his life, doubt all things; insofar as this is possible. " White areas left on maps of the world in past centuries were a much more productive challenge than marking the end of the known world with the pillars of Hercules.