Estimating Impact

Author: Alexander Kott
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9781441962355
Size: 78.91 MB
Format: PDF
View: 4155
Download
Sociological theories of crime include: theories of strain blame crime on personal stressors; theories of social learning blame crime on its social rewards, and see crime more as an institution in conflict with other institutions rather than as in- vidual deviance; and theories of control look at crime as natural and rewarding, and explore the formation of institutions that control crime. Theorists of corruption generally agree that corruption is an expression of the Patron–Client relationship in which a person with access to resources trades resources with kin and members of the community in exchange for loyalty. Some approaches to modeling crime and corruption do not involve an explicit simulation: rule based systems; Bayesian networks; game theoretic approaches, often based on rational choice theory; and Neoclassical Econometrics, a rational choice-based approach. Simulation-based approaches take into account greater complexities of interacting parts of social phenomena. These include fuzzy cognitive maps and fuzzy rule sets that may incorporate feedback; and agent-based simulation, which can go a step farther by computing new social structures not previously identified in theory. The latter include cognitive agent models, in which agents learn how to perceive their en- ronment and act upon the perceptions of their individual experiences; and reactive agent simulation, which, while less capable than cognitive-agent simulation, is adequate for testing a policy’s effects with existing societal structures. For example, NNL is a cognitive agent model based on the REPAST Simphony toolkit.

Advances In Cross Cultural Decision Making

Author: Mark Hoffman
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319607472
Size: 37.90 MB
Format: PDF, ePub
View: 4736
Download
This book reports on the latest advances in understanding cross-cultural decision and human cognition with respect to various cultural constructs, such as geographical, historical, sociological, and organizational cultures. It addresses researchers, scholars, and industry practitioners from diverse fields, including sociology, linguistics, business, military science, psychology, human factors research, neuroscience, and education. The book covers a wealth of topics, including: analyses of historical events and intercultural competence; commercial applications of social-cultural science; the study of decision-making similarities (and differences) across cultures; cultural behavioral modeling and simulation technology; and social networks and studies on group communication alike. It also reports on real-world case studies relevant to cross-cultural decision-making. The book’s main goal is to combine studies from other relevant disciplines such as causal analysis in complex environments, team decision making and social changes to develop a more holistic understanding of the decisions that people, groups, and societies make, so as to improve our ability to forecast and plan for the future. Based on the AHFE 2017 International Conference on Cross-Cultural Decision Making (CCDM), held on July 17–21, 2017, in Los Angeles, California, USA, this book offers a multidisciplinary view on the impact of culture on people’s cognition and behavior, and a timely reference guide to new applications and future challenges.

Modeling Sociocultural Influences On Decision Making

Author: Joseph V. Cohn
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 149873670X
Size: 58.95 MB
Format: PDF, ePub
View: 319
Download
In our increasingly globally interconnected world, understanding and appreciating the sociocultural context within which individuals make their decisions is critical to developing successful partnerships. The collection of chapters in this volume illustrates how advances in information and social media technologies, as well as modeling and simulation tools, combined with the social sciences, can be leveraged to better understand how sociocultural context influences decision making. The chapters in this volume were contributed by leading experts from academia, industry, and government and provide: Insights into cross-cultural decision making based on recent international events, with grounding in an historical context Discussions of cutting-edge modeling techniques used today by professionals across multiple organizations and agencies Descriptions of specific cross-cultural decision making tools designed for use by laypeople and professionals Case studies on the role of cross-cultural decision making grounded in current events and (in many cases) military applications.

Quantitative Intelligence Analysis

Author: Edward Waltz
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 144223587X
Size: 50.43 MB
Format: PDF, Docs
View: 1985
Download
The text explains the model-based method of intelligence analysis that represents the analyst’s mental models of a subject as well as the analyst’s reasoning process. It includes dynamic simulations and interactive analytic games, case studies that illustrate a wide range of intelligence problems, and a recommended curriculum for technical analysts.

Cyberpolitics In International Relations

Author: Nazli Choucri
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262017636
Size: 67.15 MB
Format: PDF, Docs
View: 4568
Download
Cyberspace is widely acknowledged as a fundamental fact of daily life in today'sworld. Until recently, its political impact was thought to be a matter of low politics--backgroundconditions and routine processes and decisions. Now, however, experts have begun to recognize itseffect on high politics--national security, core institutions, and critical decision processes. Inthis book, Nazli Choucri investigates the implications of this new cyberpolitical reality forinternational relations theory, policy, and practice. The ubiquity, fluidity, and anonymity ofcyberspace have already challenged such concepts as leverage and influence, national security anddiplomacy, and borders and boundaries in the traditionally state-centric arena of internationalrelations. Choucri grapples with fundamental questions of how we can take explicit account ofcyberspace in the analysis of world politics and how we can integrate the traditional internationalsystem with its cyber venues. After establishing the theoretical and empiricalterrain, Choucri examines modes of cyber conflict and cyber cooperation in international relations;the potential for the gradual convergence of cyberspace and sustainability, in both substantive andpolicy terms; and the emergent synergy of cyberspace and international efforts toward sustainabledevelopment. Choucri's discussion is theoretically driven and empirically grounded, drawing onrecent data and analyzing the dynamics of cyberpolitics at individual, state, international, andglobal levels. The hardcover edition does not include a dust jacket.

Advances In Design For Cross Cultural Activities

Author: Dylan D. Schmorrow
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439870284
Size: 64.95 MB
Format: PDF, Kindle
View: 1893
Download
This reference focuses on decision-making styles within cultures. It focuses on cooperative, collaborative, avoidant, competitive, and dominant styles of decision making, and discusses how each process is modified by the culture. The contributors examine issues within culture that affect decision making, such as individualism and collectivism, considered the most important influences in decision making. This reference is one of 10 predicted to be derived from the 2012 Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE) Conference.

Climate And Social Stress

Author: Committee on Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Social and Political Stresses
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309278562
Size: 41.84 MB
Format: PDF, ePub
View: 3965
Download
Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events--slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.

Abrupt Impacts Of Climate Change

Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309287766
Size: 30.31 MB
Format: PDF
View: 7205
Download
Climate is changing, forced out of the range of the past million years by levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not seen in the Earth's atmosphere for a very, very long time. Lacking action by the world's nations, it is clear that the planet will be warmer, sea level will rise, and patterns of rainfall will change. But the future is also partly uncertain -- there is considerable uncertainty about how we will arrive at that different climate. Will the changes be gradual, allowing natural systems and societal infrastructure to adjust in a timely fashion? Or will some of the changes be more abrupt, crossing some threshold or "tipping point" to change so fast that the time between when a problem is recognized and when action is required shrinks to the point where orderly adaptation is not possible? Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and its potential impacts. This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems, often affecting multiple interconnected areas of concern. The primary timescale of concern is years to decades. A key characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather than proactive, modes of behavior. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises.

The Transport System And Transport Policy

Author: Bert van Wee
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 0857936905
Size: 67.34 MB
Format: PDF, Docs
View: 353
Download
ÔThis very interesting book provides an excellent multi-disciplinary introduction into the functioning of transport systems and the interaction with their environments.Õ Ð Erik Verhoef, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands ÔThe editors of this important book have clearly identified that few writings on transport treat the transport system as a whole. Implicit in this is a need for a genuinely multidisciplinary approach. An impressive list of contributors ensures that the book draws on the latest research whilst providing new insights into some of the key challenges facing transport students and researchers, transport providers and policy makers.Õ Ð Roger Vickerman, University of Kent, UK ÔSince ancient times transportation has brought our world together. But the need for connectivity and accessibility in a spatially differentiated world has prompted the emergence of very complex transportation systems. This book offers a fresh and operational contribution to a better understanding of the complexity and manageability of a mobile world, by addressing in a balanced way both conceptual and applied or policy aspects of modern transportation systems.Õ Ð Peter Nijkamp, Free University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands Transport impacts on people and businesses in many different ways, and presents some of the key problems that decision-makers need to address. This comprehensive textbook introduces the transport system in a holistic and multidisciplinary way, bringing together the myriad components of transport. This textbook is written for an international readership of undergraduate and postgraduate students in transport and related subjects, as well as for professionals and policy decision-makers across both public and private sectors. Key features include: ¥ Discussion of the importance of transport accessibility and the impacts of transport on the environment and safety ¥ Policy issues relating to all of the discussed issues and prescribed future options. ¥ Transport evaluation methods and modelling approaches. ¥ Examples to highlight the linkages between components of the transport system Ð for example infrastructures, land-use, vehicle technologies Ð and the relevance of these linkages for decision making.