Economic Forecasting The State Of The Art

Author: Elia Xacapyr
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1315480670
Size: 54.88 MB
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An overview of the macroeconomic forecasting industry in the United States that explains and evaluates the forecasting techniques used to make predictions about various aspects of the national economy.

Economic Forecasting

Author: Graham Elliott
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400880890
Size: 38.66 MB
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Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike

Superforecasting

Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Size: 46.47 MB
Format: PDF, ePub
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A New York Times Bestseller An Economist Best Book of 2015 "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow." —Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic. From the Hardcover edition.

Encyclopedia Of Operations Research And Management Science

Author: Saul I. Gass
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461304598
Size: 56.63 MB
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Operations Research: 1934-1941," 35, 1, 143-152; "British The goal of the Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Operational Research in World War II," 35, 3, 453-470; Management Science is to provide to decision makers and "U. S. Operations Research in World War II," 35, 6, 910-925; problem solvers in business, industry, government and and the 1984 article by Harold Lardner that appeared in academia a comprehensive overview of the wide range of Operations Research: "The Origin of Operational Research," ideas, methodologies, and synergistic forces that combine to 32, 2, 465-475. form the preeminent decision-aiding fields of operations re search and management science (OR/MS). To this end, we The Encyclopedia contains no entries that define the fields enlisted a distinguished international group of academics of operations research and management science. OR and MS and practitioners to contribute articles on subjects for are often equated to one another. If one defines them by the which they are renowned. methodologies they employ, the equation would probably The editors, working with the Encyclopedia's Editorial stand inspection. If one defines them by their historical Advisory Board, surveyed and divided OR/MS into specific developments and the classes of problems they encompass, topics that collectively encompass the foundations, applica the equation becomes fuzzy. The formalism OR grew out of tions, and emerging elements of this ever-changing field. We the operational problems of the British and U. s. military also wanted to establish the close associations that OR/MS efforts in World War II.

Handbook Of Economic Forecasting

Author: Graham Elliott
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0444627413
Size: 58.41 MB
Format: PDF, ePub
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The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

A Companion To Economic Forecasting

Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 140517191X
Size: 65.21 MB
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A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together in a single volume a range of contrasting approaches and views. Uniquely surveying forecasting in a single volume, the Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed.

Computational Management Science

Author: Raquel J. Fonseca
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319204300
Size: 34.27 MB
Format: PDF, Docs
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This volume contains contributions from the 11th International Conference on Management Science (CMS 2014), held at Lisbon, Portugal, on May 29-31, 2014. Its contents reflect the wide scope of Management Science, covering different theoretical aspects for a quite diverse set of applications. Computational Management Science provides a unique perspective in relevant decision-making processes by focusing on all its computational aspects. These include computational economics, finance and statistics; energy; scheduling; supply chains; design, analysis and applications of optimization algorithms; deterministic, dynamic, stochastic, robust and combinatorial optimization models; solution algorithms, learning and forecasting such as neural networks and genetic algorithms; models and tools of knowledge acquisition, such as data mining; and all other topics in management science with the emphasis on computational paradigms.

Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis State Of The Art Surveys

Author: José Figueira
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780387230672
Size: 20.71 MB
Format: PDF, Kindle
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MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS: State of the Art Surveys is the most comprehensive work available to survey the state of the art in MCDA to date. Its 25 chapters are organized in eight parts and are written by 52 international leading experts. Each of these parts covers one of the central streams of multiple criteria decision analysis literature. These literature streams are: MCDA today, Foundations of MCDA, Our Ranking Methods, Multiattribute Utility Theory, Non-Classical MCDA Approaches, Multiobjective Mathematical Programming, Applications, and MCDM Software. The handbook presents the most up-to-date discussions on well-established methodologies and theories in the field, while systematically surveying emerging fields in MCDA such as conjoint measurement, fuzzy preferences, fuzzy integrals, rough sets, etc. MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS: State of the Art Surveys is a valuable reference volume (more than 2000 references) for the field of decision analysis. It provides graduate students, researchers, and practitioners with a sweeping survey of MCDA theory, methodologies, and applications. It is a handbook that is particularly suitable for use in seminars in Decision Analysis, Decision Support, and Decision Theory.