Economic Forecasting The State Of The Art

Author: Elia Xacapyr
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1315480670
Size: 31.25 MB
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An overview of the macroeconomic forecasting industry in the United States that explains and evaluates the forecasting techniques used to make predictions about various aspects of the national economy.

Economic Forecasting

Author: Graham Elliott
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400880890
Size: 13.29 MB
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Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike

Economic Forecasting And Policy

Author: N. Carnot
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230306446
Size: 44.56 MB
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Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.

Introduction To Quantitative Macroeconomics Using Julia

Author: Petre Caraiani
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0128135123
Size: 15.63 MB
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Introduction to Quantitative Macroeconomics Using Julia: From Basic to State-of-the-Art Computational Techniques facilitates access to fundamental techniques in computational and quantitative macroeconomics. It focuses on the recent and very promising software, Julia, which offers a MATLAB-like language at speeds comparable to C/Fortran, also discussing modeling challenges that make quantitative macroeconomics dynamic, a key feature that few books on the topic include for macroeconomists who need the basic tools to build, solve and simulate macroeconomic models. This book neatly fills the gap between intermediate macroeconomic books and modern DSGE models used in research. Combines an introduction to Julia, with the specific needs of macroeconomic students who are interested in DSGE models and PhD students and researchers interested in building DSGE models Teaches fundamental techniques in quantitative macroeconomics by introducing theoretical elements of key macroeconomic models and their potential algorithmic implementations Exposes researchers working in macroeconomics to state-of-the-art computational techniques for simulating and solving DSGE models

Superforecasting

Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Size: 41.43 MB
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A New York Times Bestseller An Economist Best Book of 2015 "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow." —Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic. From the Hardcover edition.

Renewable Energy Forecasting

Author: Georges Kariniotakis
Publisher: Woodhead Publishing
ISBN: 0081005059
Size: 38.95 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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Renewable Energy Forecasting: From Models to Applications provides an overview of the state-of-the-art of renewable energy forecasting technology and its applications. After an introduction to the principles of meteorology and renewable energy generation, groups of chapters address forecasting models, very short-term forecasting, forecasting of extremes, and longer term forecasting. The final part of the book focuses on important applications of forecasting for power system management and in energy markets. Due to shrinking fossil fuel reserves and concerns about climate change, renewable energy holds an increasing share of the energy mix. Solar, wind, wave, and hydro energy are dependent on highly variable weather conditions, so their increased penetration will lead to strong fluctuations in the power injected into the electricity grid, which needs to be managed. Reliable, high quality forecasts of renewable power generation are therefore essential for the smooth integration of large amounts of solar, wind, wave, and hydropower into the grid as well as for the profitability and effectiveness of such renewable energy projects. Offers comprehensive coverage of wind, solar, wave, and hydropower forecasting in one convenient volume Addresses a topic that is growing in importance, given the increasing penetration of renewable energy in many countries Reviews state-of-the-science techniques for renewable energy forecasting Contains chapters on operational applications

A Companion To Economic Forecasting

Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 140517191X
Size: 22.84 MB
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A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together in a single volume a range of contrasting approaches and views. Uniquely surveying forecasting in a single volume, the Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed.

Advances In Business And Management Forecasting

Author: Kenneth D. Lawrence
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 0857249592
Size: 79.81 MB
Format: PDF, Kindle
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" The objectives of this research annual is to present state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, finance, health care and strategic decision making. The orientation of this volume is applications/practitioner."--Publisher.