Design Decisions Under Uncertainty With Limited Information

Author: Efstratios Nikolaidis
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 0415492475
Size: 62.91 MB
Format: PDF, Kindle
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Today's business environment involves design decisions with significant uncertainty. To succeed, decision-makers should replace deterministic methods with a risk-based approach that accounts for the decision maker’s risk tolerance. In many problems, it is impractical to collect data because rare or one-time events are involved. Therefore, we need a methodology to model uncertainty and make choices when we have limited information. This methodology must use all available information and rely only on assumptions that are supported by evidence. This book explains theories and tools to represent uncertainty using both data and expert judgment. It teaches the reader how to make design or business decisions when there is limited information with these tools. Readers will learn a structured, risk-based approach, which is based on common sense principles, for design and business decisions. These decisions are consistent with the decision-maker’s risk attitude. The book is exceptionally suited as educational material because it uses everyday language and real-life examples to elucidate concepts. It demonstrates how these concepts touch our lives through many practical examples, questions and exercises. These are designed to help students learn that first they should understand a problem and then establish a strategy for solving it, instead of using trial-and-error approaches. This volume is intended for undergraduate and graduate courses in mechanical, civil, industrial, aerospace, and ocean engineering and for researchers and professionals in these disciplines. It will also benefit managers and students in business administration who want to make good decisions with limited information.

Bridge Maintenance Safety Management And Life Cycle Optimization

Author: Dan Frangopol
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 041589137X
Size: 33.13 MB
Format: PDF, ePub
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Bridge Maintenance, Safety, Management and Life-Cycle Optimization contains the lectures and papers presented at IABMAS 2010, the Fifth International Conference of the International Association for Bridge Maintenance and Safety (IABMAS), held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA from July 11 through 15, 2010. All major aspects of bridge maintenance, safety, management and life-cycle optimization are addressed including advanced and high performance materials, ageing of bridges, assessment and evaluation, bridge codes, bridge diagnostics, bridge management systems, bridge security, composites, design for durability, deterioration modeling, emerging technologies, fatigue, field testing, financial planning, health monitoring, innovations, inspection, life-cycle performance, load capacity assessment, loads, maintenance strategies, new technical and materials concepts, non-destructive testing, optimization strategies, prediction of future traffic demands, rehabilitation, reliability and risk management, repair, replacement, residual service life, safety and serviceability, service life prediction, strengthening, sustainable materials for bridges, sustainable bridges, whole-life costing, and multi-criteria optimization, among others. Bridge Maintenance, Safety, Management and Life-Cycle Optimization consists of a book of abstracts and a CD-ROM containing the full text of the lectures and papers presented at IABMAS 2010. This set provides both an up-to-date overview of the field of bridge engineering and significant contributions to the process of making more rational decisions in bridge maintenance, safety, security, serviceability, risk-based management, and health monitoring using traditional and emerging technologies for the purpose of enhancing the welfare of society.

Structural Design Optimization Considering Uncertainties

Author: Yannis Tsompanakis
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1134055064
Size: 33.41 MB
Format: PDF, Mobi
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Uncertainties play a dominant role in the design and optimization of structures and infrastructures. In optimum design of structural systems due to variations of the material, manufacturing variations, variations of the external loads and modelling uncertainty, the parameters of a structure, a structural system and its environment are not given, fixed coefficients, but random variables with a certain probability distribution. The increasing necessity to solve complex problems in Structural Optimization, Structural Reliability and Probabilistic Mechanics, requires the development of new ideas, innovative methods and numerical tools for providing accurate numerical solutions in affordable computing times. This book presents the latest findings on structural optimization considering uncertainties. It contains selected contributions dealing with the use of probabilistic methods for the optimal design of different types of structures and various considerations of uncertainties. The first part is focused on reliability-based design optimization and the second part on robust design optimization. Comprising twenty-one, self-contained chapters by prominent authors in the field, it forms a complete collection of state-of-the-art theoretical advances and applications in the fields of structural optimization, structural reliability, and probabilistic computational mechanics. It is recommended to researchers, engineers, and students in civil, mechanical, naval and aerospace engineering and to professionals working on complicated costs-effective design problems.

Maintenance And Safety Of Aging Infrastructure

Author: Dan Frangopol
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 0415659426
Size: 67.42 MB
Format: PDF, Kindle
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This book presents the latest research findings in the field of maintenance and safety of aging infrastructure. The invited contributions provide an overview of the use of advanced computational and/or experimental techniques in damage and vulnerability assessment as well as maintenance and retrofitting of aging structures and infrastructures such as buildings, bridges, lifelines and ships. Cost-efficient maintenance and management of civil infrastructure requires balanced consideration of both structural performance and the total cost accrued over the entire life-cycle considering uncertainties. In this context, major topics treated in this book include aging structures, climate adaptation, climate change, corrosion, cost, damage assessment, decision making, extreme events, fatigue life, hazards, hazard mitigation, inspection, life-cycle performance, maintenance, management, NDT methods, optimization, redundancy, reliability, repair, retrofit, risk, robustness, resilience, safety, stochastic control, structural health monitoring, sustainability, uncertainties and vulnerability. Applications include bridges, buildings, dams, marine structures, pavements, power distribution poles, offshore platforms, stadiums and transportation networks. This up-to-date overview of the field of maintenance and safety of aging infrastructure makes this book a must-have reference work for those involved with structures and infrastructures, including students, researchers and practitioners.

Confronting Climate Uncertainty In Water Resources Planning And Project Design

Author: Patrick A. Ray
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464804788
Size: 43.28 MB
Format: PDF
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Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.

Moving Loads Dynamic Analysis And Identification Techniques

Author: Siu-Seong Law
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 0203841425
Size: 51.43 MB
Format: PDF
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The interaction phenomenon is very common between different components of a mechanical system. It is a natural phenomenon and is found with the impact force in aircraft landing; the estimation of degree of ripeness of an apple from impact on a beam; the interaction of the magnetic head of a computer disk leading to miniature development of modern computer; etc. Uncertainty in some of them would lead to inaccurate analysis results on the behavior of the structure. The interaction force is difficult to measure unless instruments have been installed during construction for this purpose. Some of the interaction problems are difficult to quantify due to the lack of thorough knowledge on the interaction behavior. Analytical skills are required to estimate the interaction forces of the mechanical system in order to enable advanced developments in different areas of modern technology. This volume provides a comprehensive treatment on this topic with the vehicle-bridge system for an illustration of the moving load problem. It covers a whole range of topics, including mathematical concepts of the moving load problems with continuous beams and plates, vehicle-bridge interaction dynamics, weigh-in-motion techniques, moving load identification algorithms in the frequency-time domain, in the time domain and in the state space domain, techniques based on the generalized orthogonal function expansion and on the finite element formulation. The methods and algorithms can be implemented for on-line identification of the interaction forces. This book is intended for structural engineers and advanced students who wish to explore the benefit of interaction phenomenon and techniques for identification of such interaction forces. It is also recommended for researchers and decision makers working on the operation and maintenance of major infrastructures and engineering facilities.

Decision Based Design

Author: Vijitashwa Pandey
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1482228386
Size: 32.19 MB
Format: PDF, ePub
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In a presentation that formalizes what makes up decision based design, Decision Based Design defines the major concepts that go into product realization. It presents all major concepts in design decision making in an integrated way and covers the fundamentals of decision analysis in engineering design. It also trains engineers to understand the impacts of design decision. The author teaches concepts in demand modeling and customer preference modeling and provides examples. This book teaches most fundamental concepts encountered in engineering design like: concept generation, multiattribute decision analysis, reliability engineering, design optimization, simulation, and demand modeling. The book provides the tools engineering practitioners and researchers need to first understand that engineering design is best viewed as a sequence of decisions made by the stakeholders involved and then apply the decision based design concepts in practice. It teaches fundamental concepts encountered in engineering design, such as concept generation, multiattribute decision analysis, reliability engineering, design optimization, simulation, and demand modeling. This book helps students and practitioners understand that there is a rigorous way to analyze engineering decisions taking into consideration all the potential technical and business impacts of their decisions. It can be used in its entirety to teach a course in decision based design, while selected chapters can also be used to cover courses in subdisciplines that make up decision based design.

Probability Statistics And Decision For Civil Engineers

Author: Jack R Benjamin
Publisher: Courier Corporation
ISBN: 0486780724
Size: 52.89 MB
Format: PDF, Kindle
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"This text covers the development of decision theory and related applications of probability. Extensive examples and illustrations cultivate students' appreciation for applications, including strength of materials, soil mechanics, construction planning, and water-resource design. Emphasis on fundamentals makes the material accessible to students trained in classical statistics and provides a brief introduction to probability. 1970 edition"--

Design Performance

Author: Francis J. O'Donnell
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9781846281471
Size: 77.23 MB
Format: PDF, Mobi
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3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 1 2 31 The continual effort to improve performance in business processes attracts 4 increasing attention in research and industry alike. The impact of design 5 development performance on the overall business positions this area as an 6 important performance improvement opportunity. However, design devel- 7 opment is characterised by novelty, uniqueness and non-repeatability, which 8 provides particular challenges in de?ning, measuring and managing its 9 performance to achieve improvement. 2011 This book explores the support provided by both general research in busi- 1 ness process performance and design research for supporting performance 2 improvement in design development. The nature of design development in industrial practice is further revealed, and requirements for its modelling and 3 analysis to achieve improvement are highlighted. 4 A methodology for the modelling and analysis of performance in design 5 development that encapsulates a formalism of performance and an approach 6 for its analysis is established. The formalism is composed of three models, 7 which capture the nature of design development performance and support its 8 2 measurement and management. The E model formalises and relates the key 9 3011 elements of performance, i. e. , ef?ciency and effectiveness. The Design Activity 1 Management (DAM) model distinguishes design and design management 2 activities in terms of the knowledge processed, while the Performance 3 Measurement and Management (PMM) model describes how these activities 4 relate within a process of measuring and managing performance.

Completing The Forecast

Author: Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309102553
Size: 78.33 MB
Format: PDF
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Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.