Decision Analysis For Management Judgment

Author: Paul Goodwin
Publisher: Wiley Global Education
ISBN: 1118889258
Size: 73.46 MB
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Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. This latest edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.

Rational Choice And Judgment

Author: Rex Brown
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 047171688X
Size: 65.76 MB
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The tools needed to make a better, more informed decision. Decision analysis (DA) is the logic of making a decision using quantitative models of the decider’s factual and value judgments. DA is already widely used in business, government, medicine, economics, law, and science. However, most resources present only the logic and models rather than demonstrating how these methods can be effectively applied to the real world. This book offers an innovative approach to decision analysis by focusing on decision-making tools that can be utilized immediately to make better, more informed decisions. It uses no mathematics beyond arithmetic. Examining how deciders think about their choices, this book provides problem-solving techniques that not only reflect sound modeling but also meet other essential requirements: they build on the thinking and knowledge that deciders already possess; they provide knowledge in a form that people are able and willing to provide; they produce results that the decider can use; and they are based on intimate and continuous interactions with the decider. The methods outlined in this text take into account such factors as the use, the user, the organization, available data, and subjective knowledge. Replete with exercises, case studies, and observations from the author’s own extensive consulting experience, the book quickly engages readers and enables them to master decision analysis by doing rather than by simply reading. Using familiar situations, it demonstrates how to handle knowledge as it unfolds in the real world. A term project is presented in the final chapter, in which readers can select an actual decision-making problem and apply their newfound tools to prepare a recommendation. A sample report is provided in the appendix. Beginning with qualitative structuring, the text advances to sophisticated quantitative skills that can be applied in both public and private enterprise, including: · Modeling decision-making under conditions of uncertainty or multiple objectives · Risk analysis and assessment · Communicating and justifying controversial decisions · Personal life choices and political judgments · Adapting decision aid to organizations The book’s broad applicability makes it an excellent resource for any organization or as a textbook for decision-making courses in a variety of fields, including public policy, business management, systems engineering and general education. An Instructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all the problems in the book is available from the Wiley editorial department (email [email protected]) or directly from [email protected]

Judgment Calls

Author: Thomas H. Davenport
Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press
ISBN: 142215811X
Size: 70.54 MB
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Your guide to making better decisions Despite the dizzying amount of data at our disposal today—and an increasing reliance on analytics to make the majority of our decisions—many of our most critical choices still come down to human judgment. This fact is fundamental to organizations whose leaders must often make crucial decisions: to do this they need the best available insights. In Judgment Calls, authors Tom Davenport and Brook Manville share twelve stories of organizations that have successfully tapped their data assets, diverse perspectives, and deep knowledge to build an organizational decision-making capability—a competence they say can make the difference between success and failure. This book introduces a model that taps the collective judgment of an organization so that the right decisions are made, and the entire organization profits. Through the stories in Judgment Calls, the authors—both of them seasoned management thinkers and advisers—make the case for the wisdom of organizations and suggest ways to use it to best advantage. Each chapter tells a unique story of one dilemma and its ultimate resolution, bringing into high relief one key to the power of collective judgment. Individually, these stories inspire and instruct; together, they form a model for building an organizational capacity for broadly based, knowledge-intensive decision making. You’ve read The Wisdom of Crowds and Competing on Analytics. Now read Judgment Calls. You, and your organization, will make better decisions.

The Wiley Blackwell Handbook Of Judgment And Decision Making 2 Volume Set

Author: George Wu
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118468392
Size: 80.62 MB
Format: PDF, Mobi
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"This two-volume reference is a comprehensive, up-to-date examination of the most important theory, concepts, methodological approaches, and applications in the burgeoning field of judgment and decision making (JDM). Brings together a multi-disciplinary group of contributors from across the social sciences, including psychology, economics, marketing, finance, public policy, sociology, and philosophy Provides accessible, essential information, complete with the latest research and references, for experts and non-experts alike in two volumes Emphasizes the growth of JDM applications with separate chapters devoted to medical decision making, decision making and the law, consumer behavior, and more Addresses controversial topics (such as choice from description vs. choice from experience and contrasts between empirical methodologies employed in behavioral economics and psychology) from multiple perspectives "--

Professional Judgment

Author: Jack Dowie
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521346962
Size: 60.40 MB
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Policy-capturing models, data-based aids, expert systems and decision analysis are the main decision-making techniques introduced here, with attention to their methodological bases and practical evaluation.

Bayesian Methods For Management And Business

Author: Eugene D. Hahn
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118637569
Size: 63.15 MB
Format: PDF
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HIGHLIGHTS THE USE OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS TO GAIN INSIGHTS FROM EMPIRICAL DATA Featuring an accessible approach, Bayesian Methods for Management and Business: Pragmatic Solutions for Real Problems demonstrates how Bayesian statistics can help to provide insights into important issues facing business and management. The book draws on multidisciplinary applications and examples and utilizes the freely available software WinBUGS and R to illustrate the integration of Bayesian statistics within data-rich environments. Computational issues are discussed and integrated with coverage of linear models, sensitivity analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and model comparison. In addition, more advanced models including hierarchal models, generalized linear models, and latent variable models are presented to further bridge the theory and application in real-world usage. Bayesian Methods for Management and Business: Pragmatic Solutions for Real Problems also features: Numerous real-world examples drawn from multiple management disciplines such as strategy, international business, accounting, and information systems An incremental skill-building presentation based on analyzing data sets with widely applicable models of increasing complexity An accessible treatment of Bayesian statistics that is integrated with a broad range of business and management issues and problems A practical problem-solving approach to illustrate how Bayesian statistics can help to provide insight into important issues facing business and management Bayesian Methods for Management and Business: Pragmatic Solutions for Real Problems is an important textbook for Bayesian statistics courses at the advanced MBA-level and also for business and management PhD candidates as a first course in methodology. In addition, the book is a useful resource for management scholars and practitioners as well as business academics and practitioners who seek to broaden their methodological skill sets.

Blackwell Handbook Of Judgment And Decision Making

Author: Derek J. Koehler
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470752912
Size: 15.60 MB
Format: PDF
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The Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making is a state-of-the art overview of current topics and research in the study of how people make evaluations, draw inferences, and make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and conflict. Contains contributions by experts from various disciplines that reflect current trends and controversies on judgment and decision making. Provides a glimpse at the many approaches that have been taken in the study of judgment and decision making and portrays the major findings in the field. Presents examinations of the broader roles of social, emotional, and cultural influences on decision making. Explores applications of judgment and decision making research to important problems in a variety of professional contexts, including finance, accounting, medicine, public policy, and the law.

Judgment And Decision Making

Author: David K. Hardman
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1405123982
Size: 50.16 MB
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Judgment and Decision Making is a refreshingly accessibletext that explores the wide variety of ways people make judgments. An accessible examination of the wide variety of ways peoplemake judgments Features up-to-date theoretical coverage, includingperspectives from evolutionary psychology and neuroscience Covers dynamic decision making, everyday decision making,individual differences, group decision making, and the nature ofmind and brain in relation to judgment and decision making Illustrates key concepts with boxed case studies andcartoons