Decision Analysis For Management Judgment

Author: Paul Goodwin
Publisher: Wiley Global Education
ISBN: 1118889258
Size: 42.82 MB
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Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. This latest edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.

Rational Choice And Judgment

Author: Rex Brown
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 047171688X
Size: 69.11 MB
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The tools needed to make a better, more informed decision. Decision analysis (DA) is the logic of making a decision using quantitative models of the decider’s factual and value judgments. DA is already widely used in business, government, medicine, economics, law, and science. However, most resources present only the logic and models rather than demonstrating how these methods can be effectively applied to the real world. This book offers an innovative approach to decision analysis by focusing on decision-making tools that can be utilized immediately to make better, more informed decisions. It uses no mathematics beyond arithmetic. Examining how deciders think about their choices, this book provides problem-solving techniques that not only reflect sound modeling but also meet other essential requirements: they build on the thinking and knowledge that deciders already possess; they provide knowledge in a form that people are able and willing to provide; they produce results that the decider can use; and they are based on intimate and continuous interactions with the decider. The methods outlined in this text take into account such factors as the use, the user, the organization, available data, and subjective knowledge. Replete with exercises, case studies, and observations from the author’s own extensive consulting experience, the book quickly engages readers and enables them to master decision analysis by doing rather than by simply reading. Using familiar situations, it demonstrates how to handle knowledge as it unfolds in the real world. A term project is presented in the final chapter, in which readers can select an actual decision-making problem and apply their newfound tools to prepare a recommendation. A sample report is provided in the appendix. Beginning with qualitative structuring, the text advances to sophisticated quantitative skills that can be applied in both public and private enterprise, including: · Modeling decision-making under conditions of uncertainty or multiple objectives · Risk analysis and assessment · Communicating and justifying controversial decisions · Personal life choices and political judgments · Adapting decision aid to organizations The book’s broad applicability makes it an excellent resource for any organization or as a textbook for decision-making courses in a variety of fields, including public policy, business management, systems engineering and general education. An Instructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all the problems in the book is available from the Wiley editorial department (email [email protected]) or directly from [email protected]

Judgment Calls

Author: Thomas H. Davenport
Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press
ISBN: 142215811X
Size: 22.16 MB
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Your guide to making better decisions Despite the dizzying amount of data at our disposal today—and an increasing reliance on analytics to make the majority of our decisions—many of our most critical choices still come down to human judgment. This fact is fundamental to organizations whose leaders must often make crucial decisions: to do this they need the best available insights. In Judgment Calls, authors Tom Davenport and Brook Manville share twelve stories of organizations that have successfully tapped their data assets, diverse perspectives, and deep knowledge to build an organizational decision-making capability—a competence they say can make the difference between success and failure. This book introduces a model that taps the collective judgment of an organization so that the right decisions are made, and the entire organization profits. Through the stories in Judgment Calls, the authors—both of them seasoned management thinkers and advisers—make the case for the wisdom of organizations and suggest ways to use it to best advantage. Each chapter tells a unique story of one dilemma and its ultimate resolution, bringing into high relief one key to the power of collective judgment. Individually, these stories inspire and instruct; together, they form a model for building an organizational capacity for broadly based, knowledge-intensive decision making. You’ve read The Wisdom of Crowds and Competing on Analytics. Now read Judgment Calls. You, and your organization, will make better decisions.

The Wiley Blackwell Handbook Of Judgment And Decision Making 2 Volume Set

Author: George Wu
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118468392
Size: 32.66 MB
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"This two-volume reference is a comprehensive, up-to-date examination of the most important theory, concepts, methodological approaches, and applications in the burgeoning field of judgment and decision making (JDM). Brings together a multi-disciplinary group of contributors from across the social sciences, including psychology, economics, marketing, finance, public policy, sociology, and philosophy Provides accessible, essential information, complete with the latest research and references, for experts and non-experts alike in two volumes Emphasizes the growth of JDM applications with separate chapters devoted to medical decision making, decision making and the law, consumer behavior, and more Addresses controversial topics (such as choice from description vs. choice from experience and contrasts between empirical methodologies employed in behavioral economics and psychology) from multiple perspectives "--

Professional Judgment

Author: Jack Dowie
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521346962
Size: 52.76 MB
Format: PDF
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Policy-capturing models, data-based aids, expert systems and decision analysis are the main decision-making techniques introduced here, with attention to their methodological bases and practical evaluation.

Blackwell Handbook Of Judgment And Decision Making

Author: Derek J. Koehler
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470752912
Size: 51.87 MB
Format: PDF, ePub
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The Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making is a state-of-the art overview of current topics and research in the study of how people make evaluations, draw inferences, and make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and conflict. Contains contributions by experts from various disciplines that reflect current trends and controversies on judgment and decision making. Provides a glimpse at the many approaches that have been taken in the study of judgment and decision making and portrays the major findings in the field. Presents examinations of the broader roles of social, emotional, and cultural influences on decision making. Explores applications of judgment and decision making research to important problems in a variety of professional contexts, including finance, accounting, medicine, public policy, and the law.

Judgment And Decision Making

Author: David K. Hardman
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1405123982
Size: 77.21 MB
Format: PDF, Mobi
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Judgment and Decision Making is a refreshingly accessibletext that explores the wide variety of ways people make judgments. An accessible examination of the wide variety of ways peoplemake judgments Features up-to-date theoretical coverage, includingperspectives from evolutionary psychology and neuroscience Covers dynamic decision making, everyday decision making,individual differences, group decision making, and the nature ofmind and brain in relation to judgment and decision making Illustrates key concepts with boxed case studies andcartoons

Judgment

Author: Noel M. Tichy
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 1101216549
Size: 62.57 MB
Format: PDF
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“With good judgment, little else matters. Without it, nothing else matters.” Whether we’re talking about United States presidents, CEOs, Major League coaches, or wartime generals, leaders are remembered for their best and worst judgment calls. In the face of ambiguity, uncertainty, and conflicting demands, the quality of a leader’s judgment determines the fate of the entire organization. That’s why judgment is the essence of leadership. Yet despite its importance, judgment has always been a fairly murky concept. The leadership literature has been conspicuously quiet on what, exactly, defines it. Does judgment differ from common sense or gut instinct? Is it a product of luck? Of smarts? Or is there a process for making consistently good calls? Noel Tichy and Warren Bennis have each spent decades studying and teaching leadership and advising top CEOs such as Jack Welch and Howard Schultz. Now, in their first collaboration, they offer a powerful framework for making tough calls when the stakes are high and the right path is far from obvious. They show how to recognize the critical moment before a judgment call, when swift and decisive action is essential, and also how to execute a decision after the call. Tichy and Bennis bring their three-dimensional model to life with interviews with world-class leaders who have thrived or suffered because of their judgment calls. These stories include: • Jeff Immelt, CEO of General Electric, whose judgment to grow through research and development transformed GE into the world’s premier technology growth company. • Joel Klein, chancellor of the New York City Department of Education, who made tough calls about teachers, students, and parents while turning around a troubled school system. • Jim McNerney, CEO of Boeing, whose strategic judgment helped him reinvigorate his company and restore a culture of trust and respect. • The late general Wayne Downing, who found an unexpected opportunity in the midst of crisis when he led the Special Operations raid to capture Manuel Noriega. • A. G. Lafley, CEO of Procter & Gamble, who bet $57 billion to purchase Gillette and reinvent his company. • Brad Anderson, CEO of Best Buy, who made the call to commit totally to a customer-centric strategy and led his people to execute it. Whether you’re running a small department or a global corporation, Judgment will give you a framework for evaluating any situation, making the call, and correcting if necessary during the execution phase. It will show you how to handle the overlapping domains of people, strategy, and crisis management. And it will help you teach your entire team to make the right call more often. No organization can afford to neglect this crucial discipline—and no previous book has ever brought it into such clear focus. From the Hardcover edition.