Clinical Prediction Models

Author: Ewout W. Steyerberg
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780387772448
Size: 21.76 MB
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Prediction models are important in various fields, including medicine, physics, meteorology, and finance. Prediction models will become more relevant in the medical field with the increase in knowledge on potential predictors of outcome, e.g. from genetics. Also, the number of applications will increase, e.g. with targeted early detection of disease, and individualized approaches to diagnostic testing and treatment. The current era of evidence-based medicine asks for an individualized approach to medical decision-making. Evidence-based medicine has a central place for meta-analysis to summarize results from randomized controlled trials; similarly prediction models may summarize the effects of predictors to provide individu- ized predictions of a diagnostic or prognostic outcome. Why Read This Book? My motivation for working on this book stems primarily from the fact that the development and applications of prediction models are often suboptimal in medical publications. With this book I hope to contribute to better understanding of relevant issues and give practical advice on better modelling strategies than are nowadays widely used. Issues include: (a) Better predictive modelling is sometimes easily possible; e.g. a large data set with high quality data is available, but all continuous predictors are dich- omized, which is known to have several disadvantages.

Clinical Prediction Models

Author: Ewout Steyerberg
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9780387772431
Size: 49.33 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
View: 259
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Prediction models are important in various fields, including medicine, physics, meteorology, and finance. Prediction models will become more relevant in the medical field with the increase in knowledge on potential predictors of outcome, e.g. from genetics. Also, the number of applications will increase, e.g. with targeted early detection of disease, and individualized approaches to diagnostic testing and treatment. The current era of evidence-based medicine asks for an individualized approach to medical decision-making. Evidence-based medicine has a central place for meta-analysis to summarize results from randomized controlled trials; similarly prediction models may summarize the effects of predictors to provide individu- ized predictions of a diagnostic or prognostic outcome. Why Read This Book? My motivation for working on this book stems primarily from the fact that the development and applications of prediction models are often suboptimal in medical publications. With this book I hope to contribute to better understanding of relevant issues and give practical advice on better modelling strategies than are nowadays widely used. Issues include: (a) Better predictive modelling is sometimes easily possible; e.g. a large data set with high quality data is available, but all continuous predictors are dich- omized, which is known to have several disadvantages.

Regression Modeling Strategies

Author: Frank Harrell
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319194259
Size: 31.97 MB
Format: PDF, ePub
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This highly anticipated second edition features new chapters and sections, 225 new references, and comprehensive R software. In keeping with the previous edition, this book is about the art and science of data analysis and predictive modeling, which entails choosing and using multiple tools. Instead of presenting isolated techniques, this text emphasizes problem solving strategies that address the many issues arising when developing multivariable models using real data and not standard textbook examples. It includes imputation methods for dealing with missing data effectively, methods for fitting nonlinear relationships and for making the estimation of transformations a formal part of the modeling process, methods for dealing with "too many variables to analyze and not enough observations," and powerful model validation techniques based on the bootstrap. The reader will gain a keen understanding of predictive accuracy and the harm of categorizing continuous predictors or outcomes. This text realistically deals with model uncertainty and its effects on inference, to achieve "safe data mining." It also presents many graphical methods for communicating complex regression models to non-statisticians. Regression Modeling Strategies presents full-scale case studies of non-trivial datasets instead of over-simplified illustrations of each method. These case studies use freely available R functions that make the multiple imputation, model building, validation and interpretation tasks described in the book relatively easy to do. Most of the methods in this text apply to all regression models, but special emphasis is given to multiple regression using generalized least squares for longitudinal data, the binary logistic model, models for ordinal responses, parametric survival regression models and the Cox semi parametric survival model. A new emphasis is given to the robust analysis of continuous dependent variables using ordinal regression. As in the first edition, this text is intended for Masters' or Ph.D. level graduate students who have had a general introductory probability and statistics course and who are well versed in ordinary multiple regression and intermediate algebra. The book will also serve as a reference for data analysts and statistical methodologists, as it contains an up-to-date survey and bibliography of modern statistical modeling techniques. Examples used in the text mostly come from biomedical research, but the methods are applicable anywhere predictive models ("analytics") are useful, including economics, epidemiology, sociology, psychology, engineering and marketing.

Design And Analysis Of Vaccine Studies

Author: M. Elizabeth Halloran
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0387686363
Size: 43.95 MB
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As well as being a reference for the design, analysis, and interpretation of vaccine studies, the text covers all design and analysis stages, from vaccine development to post-licensure surveillance, presenting likelihood, frequentists, and Bayesian approaches.

Cancer Mortality And Morbidity Patterns In The U S Population

Author: K.G. Manton
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780387781938
Size: 24.25 MB
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The purpose of this book is to examine the etiology of cancer in large human populations using mathematical models developed from an inter-disciplinary perspective of the population epidemiological, biodemographic, genetic and physiological basis of the mechanisms of cancer initiation and progression. In addition an investigation of how the basic mechanism of tumor initiation relates to general processes of senescence and to other major chronic diseases (e.g., heart disease and stroke) will be conducted.

Absolute Risk

Author: Ruth M. Pfeiffer
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1351643819
Size: 25.70 MB
Format: PDF
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Absolute Risk: Methods and Applications in Clinical Management and Public Health provides theory and examples to demonstrate the importance of absolute risk in counseling patients, devising public health strategies, and clinical management. The book provides sufficient technical detail to allow statisticians, epidemiologists, and clinicians to build, test, and apply models of absolute risk. Features: Provides theoretical basis for modeling absolute risk, including competing risks and cause-specific and cumulative incidence regression Discusses various sampling designs for estimating absolute risk and criteria to evaluate models Provides details on statistical inference for the various sampling designs Discusses criteria for evaluating risk models and comparing risk models, including both general criteria and problem-specific expected losses in well-defined clinical and public health applications Describes many applications encompassing both disease prevention and prognosis, and ranging from counseling individual patients, to clinical decision making, to assessing the impact of risk-based public health strategies Discusses model updating, family-based designs, dynamic projections, and other topics Ruth M. Pfeiffer is a mathematical statistician and Fellow of the American Statistical Association, with interests in risk modeling, dimension reduction, and applications in epidemiology. She developed absolute risk models for breast cancer, colon cancer, melanoma, and second primary thyroid cancer following a childhood cancer diagnosis. Mitchell H. Gail developed the widely used "Gail model" for projecting the absolute risk of invasive breast cancer. He is a medical statistician with interests in statistical methods and applications in epidemiology and molecular medicine. He is a member of the National Academy of Medicine and former President of the American Statistical Association. Both are Senior Investigators in the Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health.

A Guide To Outcome Modeling In Radiotherapy And Oncology

Author: Issam El Naqa
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 0429840349
Size: 40.33 MB
Format: PDF
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This book explores outcome modeling in cancer from a data-centric perspective to enable a better understanding of complex treatment response, to guide the design of advanced clinical trials, and to aid personalized patient care and improve their quality of life. It contains coverage of the relevant data sources available for model construction (panomics), ranging from clinical or preclinical resources to basic patient and treatment characteristics, medical imaging (radiomics), and molecular biological markers such as those involved in genomics, proteomics and metabolomics. It also includes discussions on the varying methodologies for predictive model building with analytical and data-driven approaches. This book is primarily intended to act as a tutorial for newcomers to the field of outcome modeling, as it includes in-depth how-to recipes on modeling artistry while providing sufficient instruction on how such models can approximate the physical and biological realities of clinical treatment. The book will also be of value to seasoned practitioners as a reference on the varying aspects of outcome modeling and their current applications.

Ethical Issues In Clinical Research

Author: Bernard Lo
Publisher: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
ISBN: 1451152779
Size: 63.71 MB
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This book teaches researchers how to resolve the ethical dilemmas that can arise at any stage in clinical research. In addition to explaining pertinent regulations and laws, Dr. Lo helps investigators understand the gaps and uncertainties in regulations, as well as situations in which merely complying with the law may not fulfill ethical responsibilities. Most chapters include real-life examples that the author walks through, discussing the salient issues and how to approach them. This book can be used in courses on research ethics that are required or encouraged by major National Institutes of Health grants in academic health centers.

Approach To Internal Medicine

Author: David Hui
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319118218
Size: 16.62 MB
Format: PDF, Mobi
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This fully updated 4th Edition of provides an integrated symptom- and issue-based approach with easy access to high yield clinical information. For each topic, carefully organized sections on different diagnoses, investigations, and treatments are designed to facilitate patient care and examination preparation. Numerous clinical pearls and comparison tables are provided to help enhance learning, and international units (US and metric) are used to facilitate application in everyday clinical practice. The book covers many highly important, rarely discussed topics in medicine (e.g., smoking cessation, obesity, transfusion reactions, needle stick injuries, code status discussion, interpretation of gram stain, palliative care), and new chapters on end-of-life care and depression have been added. The fourth edition includes many reader-friendly improvements such as better formatting, intuitive ordering of chapters, and incorporation of the most recent guidelines for each topic. Approach to Internal Medicine continues to serve as an essential reference for every medical student, resident, fellow, practicing physician, nurse, and physician assistant.

An Introduction To Statistical Learning

Author: Gareth James
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461471389
Size: 74.18 MB
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An Introduction to Statistical Learning provides an accessible overview of the field of statistical learning, an essential toolset for making sense of the vast and complex data sets that have emerged in fields ranging from biology to finance to marketing to astrophysics in the past twenty years. This book presents some of the most important modeling and prediction techniques, along with relevant applications. Topics include linear regression, classification, resampling methods, shrinkage approaches, tree-based methods, support vector machines, clustering, and more. Color graphics and real-world examples are used to illustrate the methods presented. Since the goal of this textbook is to facilitate the use of these statistical learning techniques by practitioners in science, industry, and other fields, each chapter contains a tutorial on implementing the analyses and methods presented in R, an extremely popular open source statistical software platform. Two of the authors co-wrote The Elements of Statistical Learning (Hastie, Tibshirani and Friedman, 2nd edition 2009), a popular reference book for statistics and machine learning researchers. An Introduction to Statistical Learning covers many of the same topics, but at a level accessible to a much broader audience. This book is targeted at statisticians and non-statisticians alike who wish to use cutting-edge statistical learning techniques to analyze their data. The text assumes only a previous course in linear regression and no knowledge of matrix algebra.