Belief Evidence And Uncertainty

Author: Prasanta S. Bandyopadhyay
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319277723
Size: 74.32 MB
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This work breaks new ground by carefully distinguishing the concepts of belief, confirmation, and evidence and then integrating them into a better understanding of personal and scientific epistemologies. It outlines a probabilistic framework in which subjective features of personal knowledge and objective features of public knowledge have their true place. It also discusses the bearings of some statistical theorems on both formal and traditional epistemologies while showing how some of the existing paradoxes in both can be resolved with the help of this framework.This book has two central aims: First, to make precise a distinction between the concepts of confirmation and evidence and to argue that failure to recognize this distinction is the source of certain otherwise intractable epistemological problems. The second goal is to demonstrate to philosophers the fundamental importance of statistical and probabilistic methods, at stake in the uncertain conditions in which for the most part we lead our lives, not simply to inferential practice in science, where they are now standard, but to epistemic inference in other contexts as well. Although the argument is rigorous, it is also accessible. No technical knowledge beyond the rudiments of probability theory, arithmetic, and algebra is presupposed, otherwise unfamiliar terms are always defined and a number of concrete examples are given. At the same time, fresh analyses are offered with a discussion of statistical and epistemic reasoning by philosophers. This book will also be of interest to scientists and statisticians looking for a larger view of their own inferential techniques.The book concludes with a technical appendix which introduces an evidential approach to multi-model inference as an alternative to Bayesian model averaging.

A Summary Of Scientific Method

Author: Peter Kosso
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9789400716148
Size: 31.89 MB
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A Summary of Scientific Method is a brief description of what makes science scientific. It is written in a direct, clear style that is accessible and informative for scientists and science students. It is intended to help science teachers explain how science works, highlighting strengths without ignoring limitations, and to help scientists articulate the process and standards of their work. The book demonstrates that there are several important requirements for being scientific, and the most fundamental of these is maintaining an extensive, interconnected, coherent network of ideas. Some components in the network are empirical, others are theoretical, and they support each other. Clarifying the structure of this web of knowledge explains the role of the commonly cited aspects of scientific method, things like hypotheses, theories, testing, evidence, and the like. A Summary of Scientific Method provides a clear, intuitive, and accurate model of scientific method.

How To Do Science With Models

Author: Axel Gelfert
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319279548
Size: 64.68 MB
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Taking scientific practice as its starting point, this book charts the complex territory of models used in science. It examines what scientific models are and what their function is. Reliance on models is pervasive in science, and scientists often need to construct models in order to explain or predict anything of interest at all. The diversity of kinds of models one finds in science – ranging from toy models and scale models to theoretical and mathematical models – has attracted attention not only from scientists, but also from philosophers, sociologists, and historians of science. This has given rise to a wide variety of case studies that look at the different uses to which models have been put in specific scientific contexts. By exploring current debates on the use and building of models via cutting-edge examples drawn from physics and biology, the book provides broad insight into the methodology of modelling in the natural sciences. It pairs specific arguments with introductory material relating to the ontology and the function of models, and provides some historical context to the debates as well as a sketch of general positions in the philosophy of scientific models in the process.

Development Aid Populism And The End Of The Neoliberal Agenda

Author: Viktor Jakupec
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319727486
Size: 52.55 MB
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This volume examines the impact of the Trump presidency on development aid. It starts out by describing the rise of national populism, the political landscape and the reasons for rejection of the political establishment, both under Trump and internationally. Next, it gives a historical-political overview of development aid in the post WW-II era and discusses the dominant Washington Consensus doctrine and its failure. It then provides a critique of the Official Development Assistance (ODA) discourse and reviews the political economy of ODA, the discourse, and the conditionalities that are barriers to socio-economic development. The final chapters explore the question of Trumponomics as an alternative to the global neoliberal ODA, and the potential impact of Trumponomics’ on ODA. The book concludes with thoughts on the potential future directions for ODA within the ‘ideals’ of Trumponomics and national populism.

The Illusion Of Risk Control

Author: Gilles Motet
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319329391
Size: 80.70 MB
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This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. This book explores the implications of acknowledging uncertainty and black swans for regulation of high-hazard technologies, for stakeholder acceptability of potentially hazardous activities and for risk governance. The conventional approach to risk assessment, which combines the likelihood of an event and the severity of its consequences, is poorly suited to situations where uncertainty and ambiguity are prominent features of the risk landscape. The new definition of risk used by ISO, “the effect of uncertainty on [achievement of] one’s objectives”, recognizes this paradigm change. What lessons can we draw from the management of fire hazards in Edo-era Japan? Are there situations in which increasing uncertainty allows more effective safety management? How should society address the risk of potentially planet-destroying scientific experiments? This book presents insights from leading scholars in different disciplines to challenge current risk governance and safety management practice.

Simulating Social Complexity

Author: Bruce Edmonds
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3540938133
Size: 55.30 MB
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Social systems are among the most complex known. This poses particular problems for those who wish to understand them. The complexity often makes analytic approaches infeasible and natural language approaches inadequate for relating intricate cause and effect. However, individual- and agent-based computational approaches hold out the possibility of new and deeper understanding of such systems. Simulating Social Complexity examines all aspects of using agent- or individual-based simulation. This approach represents systems as individual elements having each their own set of differing states and internal processes. The interactions between elements in the simulation represent interactions in the target systems. What makes these elements "social" is that they are usefully interpretable as interacting elements of an observed society. In this, the focus is on human society, but can be extended to include social animals or artificial agents where such work enhances our understanding of human society. The phenomena of interest then result (emerge) from the dynamics of the interaction of social actors in an essential way and are usually not easily simplifiable by, for example, considering only representative actors. The introduction of accessible agent-based modelling allows the representation of social complexity in a more natural and direct manner than previous techniques. In particular, it is no longer necessary to distort a model with the introduction of overly strong assumptions simply in order to obtain analytic tractability. This makes agent-based modelling relatively accessible to a range of scientists. The outcomes of such models can be displayed and animated in ways that also make them more interpretable by experts and stakeholders. This handbook is intended to help in the process of maturation of this new field. It brings together, through the collaborative effort of many leading researchers, summaries of the best thinking and practice in this area and constitutes a reference point for standards against which future methodological advances are judged. This book will help those entering into the field to avoid "reinventing the wheel" each time, but it will also help those already in the field by providing accessible overviews of current thought. The material is divided into four sections: Introductory, Methodology, Mechanisms, and Applications. Each chapter starts with a very brief section called ‘Why read this chapter?’ followed by an abstract, which summarizes the content of the chapter. Each chapter also ends with a section of ‘Further Reading’ briefly describing three to eight items that a newcomer might read next.

Scientific Explanation

Author: Erik Weber
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9400764464
Size: 60.80 MB
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When scientist investigate why things happen, they aim at giving an explanation. But what does a scientific explanation look like? In the first chapter (Theories of Scientific Explanation) of this book, the milestones in the debate on how to characterize scientific explanations are exposed. The second chapter (How to Study Scientific Explanation?) scrutinizes the working-method of three important philosophers of explanation, Carl Hempel, Philip Kitcher and Wesley Salmon and shows what went wrong. Next, it is the responsibility of current philosophers of explanation to go on where Hempel, Kitcher and Salmon failed. However, we should go on in a clever way. We call this clever way the pragmatic approach to scientific explanation and clarify briefly what this approach consists in. The third chapter (A Toolbox for Describing and Evaluating Explanatory Practices) elaborates the pragmatic approach by presenting a toolbox for analysing scientific explanation. In the last chapter (Examples of Descriptions and Evaluations of Explanatory Practices) the approach is illustrated with real-life examples of scientists aiming at explaining. This book can be used as a textbook for intermediate philosophy of science courses and is also valuable as “suggested reading” for introductory courses in philosophy of science. The way the book is set up makes it an excellent study and research guide for advanced (MA and PhD) students that work on the topic of scientific explanation. Finally, it is a handy source and reference book for senior researchers in the field of scientific explanations and – more generally – for all philosophers of science. ​

Epistemology Of Decision

Author: Mario Graziano
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9400754280
Size: 60.47 MB
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This book carries out an epistemological analysis of the decision, including a critical analysis through the continuous reference to an interdisciplinary approach including a synthesis of philosophical approaches, biology and neuroscience. Besides this it represents the analysis of causality here seen not from the formal point of view, but from the "embodied" point of view. ​

Closing Human Evolution Life In The Ultimate Age

Author: Ladislav Kováč
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319206605
Size: 76.77 MB
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This volume analyses the evolution of humankind by combining approaches from science and the arts. It offers a novel perspective on the evolution of life on Earth, based on a recent reformulation of the second law of thermodynamics in terms of the “maximum entropy production principle.” In essence, the Earth is but one of many “white holes” in the universe, where life functions as a specific arrangement for the rapid dissipation of energy gradients by generating self-organized structures. Evolution of life in the universe is a creative process of increasing complexity as a Bayesian ratchet of knowledge accumulation, advancing in an evolutionary maze characterized by myriad blind alleys. On Earth, the human species has progressed more than any other by creating artefacts that have become both agents and products of in our cumulative cultural evolution. Culture has dramatically enhanced the rate of dissipation of energy gradients. Extrapolating from the acceleration of cultural evolution suggests that humanity will reach the Civilization Singularity in the middle of the 21st century, a point in time at which the rate of changes, and hence their unpredictability and uncontrollability, will converge to infinity. Humankind has now entered the ultimate age, in which the exuberance and splendour of human feats may be metaphorically likened to fireworks. The author highlights a new role of scientists as intellectuals who can create “music for the fireworks” by analysing the consequences of the astounding dynamics in order to make the closing phase of human evolution a sublime one marked by minimal political and social tensions.

Transgenerational Entrepreneurship

Author: M. Nordqvist
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1849805466
Size: 19.45 MB
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Introducing a new concept in family businesses Transgenerational Entrepreneurship addresses how these businesses achieve growth and longevity through entrepreneurial activities. It focuses on the resources, capabilities and mindsets that families develop and draw upon in order to be entrepreneurial across generations, and presents findings from an international research collaboration between family business researchers and practitioners. In addition to a comprehensive conceptual chapter, the editors include a unique set of empirical case-based research papers that investigates transgenerational entrepreneurship in different European contexts. They bring together and integrate frontier research on entrepreneurship and family business, as well as provide a basis for future research. Academics, teachers and students in business and management, entrepreneurship and family business will find this path-breaking book of value, as will libraries, policy makers and consultants.